What Are Our Chances of a White Christmas?

Ingus Bajars

Are you dreaming of a white Christmas? The National Weather Service forecast via NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) shows that after the passage of this weekend's arctic blast, only a couple of slight chances of new snow are possible next week, and the mercury will be on the upswing. But, with the regular occurrences of snow, cold temperatures and the accumulation that has piled up in Cedar Rapids over the past few weeks, a white Christmas seems likely to happen. While the bitter cold wind chills are on their way out, we will still remain at or below freezing until at least Friday, December 23, when the forecast high is predicted to hit 33 degrees.

If you can tell from the map above, via NOAA it looks like in our neck of the woods, Cedar Rapids has a historical probability of about 41-50%, of at least 1 inch of the white stuff still being on the ground by Christmas Day. The graphic below, from weather.com, puts Des Moines' average chances right at 40%

Plains

	Avg. Percent Chance	Number of White Christmases	Last White Christmas (Depth)
Bismarck, ND	80	All but 15 since 1948	2015 (5 inches)
Des Moines, IA	40	37 since 1939	2015 (1 inch)
Duluth, MN	97	All but 4 since 1916	2015 (5 inches)
Kansas City	23	25 since 1893	2013 (4 inches)
Mpls./St. Paul	80	84 since 1899	2013 (9 inches)
Omaha, NE	37	25 since 1948	2015 (7 inches)
Pierre, SD	57	43 since 1941	2015 (2 inches)
Wichita, KS	27	13 since 1951	2013 (2 inches)

Call me Captain Obvious, but I'm guessing the odds this year are better than average. This graphic, from weather.com, puts it more plainly. A white Christmas is likely for us.

White Christmas Forecast