Enter your number to get our free mobile app
IHME/University of Washington

A model that is highly cited, including by the White House, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington shows when states would most likely be able to reopen businesses and ease social distancing.

According to the model by IHME, many states will most likely need to hold off on reopening businesses in their state by more than a month. These recommendations by IHME is to help reduce a large negative impact on the number of cases in each state.

The model shows that 12 states should wait until at least June 8th or later before beginning to relax social distancing. IHME said about their model,

"Yesterday, we published our second iteration of estimates of when states may be able to consider easing currently implemented social distancing policies if – and only if – strong containment measures already have been instituted."

Iowa is one of the 12 states that should wait until June 8 or later before considering relaxing social distancing guidelines. Among the 6 social distance government mandates the IHME recommends, Iowa only has 3. The 3 mandates in Iowa include school closures, business closures, and mass gathering restrictions. The 3 mandates IHME recommends that the Iowa state government has not implemented are closing non-essential services, stay at home order, and severely limiting travel.

Illinois is one of 11 states recommended to wait to relax social distancing guidelines between May 18th and May 24th. Illinois has 5 recommended government mandates by the IHME implemented. The only recommended mandate Illinois doesn't have is severely limited travel.

IHME has Iowa's peak date projected to be on May 5th with 9 deaths. The highest daily death report in Iowa has been April 18th with 10 deaths. Illinois' peak date has already passed. Illinois' peak date was April 18th which a total of 125 deaths in one day.

There are states that could reopen safely in early May. Those states include North Carolina, Hawaii and Montana.

IHME and the University of Washington do warn against over relying on this model. They say that this is just one of many models and that this particular is viewed as having a conservative threshold. IHME says that for some places, this may be an underestimate of public health capacity, and in others it could remain ambitious until containment efforts are increased.